1. Swine Flu Second Wave: Typically, influenza outbreaks come in waves, getting worse with each one. The very ease with which we seem to have survived the first wave of swine flu may make us vulnerable to a horrific second wave.2. Commercial Real Estate Collapse: Various commercial real estate deals face trillions in refinancing obligations over the coming years. But the market is practically closed, ensuring massive bankruptcies and restructuring.Why are lenders so freaked out? Because existing loans are going sour at a pace unlike anything we've seen in history. Because of that, even commercial real estate properties with strong cash flows are finding financing extremely difficult to come by.3. The Option Adjustable Rate Mortgage Explosion: Anyone referring to the "subprime crisis" has got to get with the program. The subprime wave of defaults is basically over. Now the question is, what about all the other types of mortgages? You know, Option ARM, Alt-As and of course, good old fashioned prime mortgage. The big wave of Option ARM resets has yet to come, and given the drop in home prices, refinancing won't be realistic. Let's hope the homeowners can afford their new monthly payments.4. Global Food Crisis: As we saw last year, the global food supply teeters on the edge of adequacy. Any serious shock--floods in the Midwest, a war in Asia, social unrest in China, political upheaval in Thailand or Egypt--could result in shortages in countries that import large amounts of their food.5. Israel Bombs Iran: The Obama administration's openness to the Iranian regime may have the perverse effect of emboldening its nuclear ambitions. Very likely, the fears of the nuclear Iran are over-stated. It would probably behave like most members of the global nuke club, cowed by its own destructive power into behaving responsibly. But Iran isn't the only country to worry about in the region. Israel may not be willing to tolerate a nuclear armed Iran, and may choose to strike out to destroy Iran's nascent nuclear capabilities. This would obvious raise tensions throughout the Middle East. At the very least, oil prices will likely spike and remain elevated following any military action against Iran. This, in turn, will slow the global economy.6. A Wave of Municipal Defaults: Historically, cities and states don't default on their loans very much. But as Warren Buffett pointed out, historical results don't mean jack because muni insurance wasn't around. Unless it gets a bailout, California may go bankrupt, causing the muni market to seize up, bringing public works and spending to a halt, kneecapping GDP.At that point, with no ability to borrow, the other states will rush to default themselves, sparing their taxpayers any more pain.7. Another Bank Run: It seems unlikely, given the government's implicit guarantee of the banking sector, but it's always possible that investors or lenders could lose confidence in one of the banks again, prompting a financing run a la Bear Stearns. If this happened, we'd be back to square one with all the confidence and bailouts since Lehman's collapse -- only, the government would have fewer bullets left in the gun.8. Runaway Inflation: The Federal Reserve seems confident that it can "land the recovery." Is it right?There's good reason to be skeptical that the Fed will be able to reduce the monetary base before it floods out into the economy, driving up prices and destroying savings. For one thing, the Fed has never really been very good at doing this. By the time the Fed realizes that inflation is taking off, it may be too late.9. North Korean Missile Launch: Wee dictator Kim Jong II has lulled the world to sleep, performing missile tests on a seemingly daily basis. What was once a cause for alarm now barely merits a bulletin on CNBC. In fact, the dollar has rallied on the nervousness.But his neighbors in China, South Korea and Japan are freaked out and an actual war, or genuine provocation, could wreak havoc on far eastern trade. This might cause investors to flee towards the dollar, but it would be terrible for markets and economic activity.10. Chinese Financial Crisis: Most economic discussion of China these days is about how dependent the US government has become on China buying Treasury bonds. But China has lately learned that its own economy is dangerously leveraged on foreign demand for Chinese manufactured goods. The global downturn has helped expose the fragility of the Chinese economic miracle, and worse might be coming.A collapse of profits in China could very well spark a banking crisis, much like the collapse of real estate prices did to US financial institutions. Very little attention has been paid to the fragility of the Chinese financial system, which is dominated by large, slow, non-transparent, often corrupt state-run banks and centralized decision making. Slowing exports could be the tide that goes out and reveals whi

all of the above - this country is in deep doggie doodoo!#6 is happening in CA. The @ssholes are still talking about raising taxes, even after the special election where 2/3 of the voters told them to "go pound sand!"

Don't worry. Teleprompter has it covered.

I'll take #10 for 100 Alex.

What she said, above me!!! She is "Right On Target"!!!!

The Libs will get sick from suckin on to much fleshlights.

We love all this mess in the World!The door for Bolshevism is open!This deepening world crisis is unstoppable!

Most or all of the above at varying times and degrees.What a bright outlook for tomorrow.

geez, when you put it like that, it makes me think maybe we'd all just be better off if we'd up & shoot ourselves.

Stellar question. The commercial market is about to take a big lick with about 3,000 parcels of lands and buildings hitting the market with the auto clsoings and even before that they haven't taken the hit for lost revenues in rentals.Not sure about Iran, but we should sell them tis "green" technology we are about to invest a mint in as with those deserts the windmills will work and solar! Besides they got plenty of oil. By the way the OPEC nations overproduce all the time by millions of barrels a day. It's about the only thing they got. So there really is not a shortage. Really CArter and Clinton should have removed the nuclear material before giving Kim the oil and money before and feel Obama is making the same stupid mistake or is it?Morgan Stanley hired former Enron brokers to pay their meida contacts to manipulate the price up to $140 a barrel. The regulations had been take down. The regulations stopping the greatest rip off of America also had the regulations taken down.Even now the banking lobbyist just finished spreading $28.7 million around Washington and 'donating" to the House financial committee. For the money they got the Congress telling the advisory board to 'loosen" the "mark to market' regualtions, that in fact make the companies show actual accounting. So like Wells Fargo, Citigroup and others are now able to put out better first quarter earnings. Isn't that why WorldCom got in trouble. Too bad the European market nixed the sprint deal with WorldCom as it probably would have set it right.I don't think China has revalued the yuan, so might not be that bad, but not sure. Home rate, looks like the same thing and yo know Congress has done nothing to make sure the original regualtions are back in place or the guilty go to jail.The site below has the Wall street Journal article on the banking industry buying Congress and it also tells what the Congress people get from the lobbyist and who dones what. I always wonder, like GE and GM each spend about $180 million each last year in lobbyist money and wonder where it goes. That's just the tip of the iceberg. It also doesn't include say the $200-300,000 salary that the Congress peoples children ro spuse get working for the lobbyist firm. Sweet huh.Have a great 2009!